Prepared by A-J | Author brand: 盡職生活｜阿J的普通人理財筆記
About the author/site · Vocus @WUCJ ↗ · Editorial policy
Page version: 2026-08-24 | Official or primary sources are preferred for material rules and figures. AI may assist structure, translation, and code, but is not used as the sole factual source.
About the author/site · Vocus @WUCJ ↗ · Editorial policy
Page version: 2026-08-24 | Official or primary sources are preferred for material rules and figures. AI may assist structure, translation, and code, but is not used as the sole factual source.
Accumulation and withdrawal phases are different: while saving, a market decline can buy more units; during retirement, withdrawals can force sales at depressed prices.
Average return is not enough
Two portfolios can have the same long-term average return but very different retirement outcomes. Large losses in the first years of withdrawals are usually more damaging because sold units cannot participate in a later recovery.
Inflation can amplify the damage
Living costs do not necessarily fall with markets. If prices rise while the portfolio falls, the retiree may need to withdraw a larger nominal amount from a smaller asset base.
Possible buffers
- Keep a cash/short-bond spending reserve.
- Diversify rather than relying on one high-volatility asset.
- Reduce discretionary spending in bad markets.
- Use flexible withdrawals rather than mechanically increasing spending every year.
Official / primary references
A self-built monthly pension is not guaranteed. Sustainable cash flow depends on returns, inflation, longevity, fees, taxes and withdrawal behavior.